Space X – with mobile operator partner T-Mobile – "will have ...
an 18- to 24-month lead" on the direct satellite-to-cell phone
communica ons market over rival AST SpaceMobile, which has
teamed up with AT&T and Verizon to provide similar service, TMF
Associates President and principal analyst Tim Farrar told Fierce
Network on Monday.
Space X has told the FCC that it will launch its ini al direct-to-cell
satellite service in fall of this year. "They'll probably want to get to
something like 300 satellites up to launch a service. That will give
pre y good coverage of the U.S. and other countries," Farrar said
during a phone interview.
The SpaceX service for T-Mobile will use the company's low earth
orbit (that circle the world at around 310 miles – or 500 kilometers
– above the globe). The larger 2nd genera on SpaceX satellites can
connect to the majority of T-Mobile's 4G and 5G phones over its
1900 MHz spectrum.
As the T-Mobile service starts in the autumn, "the real ques on
is, whether they actually charge for the service at all," Farrar
noted. He would expect them to go to market ini ally with a free
service, SpaceX doesn't need the cash to build out the network
and T-Mobile will probably pay them similar to how they deal with
a roaming partner. Farrar expects calls to ini ally be handled over
Internet apps like WhatsApp and Signal, so that SpaceX and friends
don't have to with cellular aspects like E911 calls.
"Over me, when data/calls becomes more cost effec ve,
then the packages will change," Roy Chua, principal analyst at
AvidThink commented.
Satellite space cha er
SpaceX has told the FCC that it wants around 2,000 direct-to-
cellular satellites as part of the 7,500 larger 2nd genera on
satellites it has been approved to launch. Space X has launched
13 direct-to-cell satellites so far.
This is far more than most other direct-to-cell projects, including
the Globalstar LEO network, which intends to have 17 satellites
up by the end of 2025 to support Apple's SOS text messaging
emergency communica ons system, which was launched in 2023.
By the end of 2025, Space X will have far surpassed that number.
AT&T and Verizon, unlike T-Mobile, are not using the SpaceX/
Starlink network to support their plans for direct-to-cell
services. The other two major U.S. operators intend to use AST
SpaceMobile. AT&T invested in the company several years ago,
and Verizon has just said it will spend $100 million on its AST deal.
"We saw from Verizon inves ng in AST that they don't want
SpaceX to be the only game in town," Farrar said. "But it does
look like [Space X] is going to have enormous lead in this market,
they're going to have hundreds of satellites up when AST will
probably have 6."
"Ini ally we don't see any more than a few thousand subscribers
signing up," Asad Khan, Research Director, 5G & Wireless
Networks at SNS Telecom & IT said in an email. "However, we
expect to see significant adop on in 2025 – poten ally reaching
as much as 0.8 million subscribers – as voice and broadband data
services are launched and the perceived value of emergency
messaging services is proven in poten ally lifesaving real-world
scenarios. We also an cipate the launch of D2D services from AST
SpaceMobile and Lynk Global within the 2025-2026 meframe."
We'll see how all of this draws out over the next couple of years
as more of these kinds of LEO satellites light up the night sky.
Ar cle Credit: h ps://www.fierce-network.com/wireless/space-x-
says-its-ready-fall-direct-satellite-cell-service-t-mobile
SpaceX says it's ready for
a fall satellite-to-cell
service with T-Mobile
Talleycom.com
SHEET
QUARTER 2 2024
